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COVID-19 in the United States: Trajectories and second surge behavior.
James, Nick; Menzies, Max.
  • James N; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
  • Menzies M; Yau Mathematical Sciences Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Chaos ; 30(9): 091102, 2020 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-811488
ABSTRACT
This paper introduces a mathematical framework for determining second surge behavior of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Within this framework, a flexible algorithmic approach selects a set of turning points for each state, computes distances between them, and determines whether each state is in (or over) a first or second surge. Then, appropriate distances between normalized time series are used to further analyze the relationships between case trajectories on a month-by-month basis. Our algorithm shows that 31 states are experiencing second surges, while four of the 10 largest states are still in their first surge, with case counts that have never decreased. This analysis can aid in highlighting the most and least successful state responses to COVID-19.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Models, Theoretical Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Chaos Journal subject: Science Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 5.0024204

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Models, Theoretical Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Chaos Journal subject: Science Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 5.0024204