Magnitude and time-course of excess mortality during COVID-19 outbreak: population-based empirical evidence from highly impacted provinces in northern Italy.
ERJ Open Res
; 6(3)2020 Jul.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-814557
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The real impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on overall mortality remains uncertain as surveillance reports have attributed a limited number of deaths to novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the outbreak. The aim of this study was to assess the excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in highly impacted areas of northern Italy.METHODS:
We analysed data on deaths that occurred in the first 4â months of 2020 provided by the health protection agencies (HPAs) of Bergamo and Brescia (Lombardy), building a time-series of daily number of deaths and predicting the daily standardised mortality ratio (SMR) and cumulative number of excess deaths through a Poisson generalised additive model of the observed counts in 2020, using 2019 data as a reference.RESULTS:
We estimated that there were 5740 (95% credible set (CS) 5552-5936) excess deaths in the HPA of Bergamo and 3703 (95% CS 3535-3877) in Brescia, corresponding to a 2.55-fold (95% CS 2.50-2.61) and 1.93 (95% CS 1.89-1.98) increase in the number of deaths. The excess death wave started a few days later in Brescia, but the daily estimated SMR peaked at the end of March in both HPAs, roughly 2â weeks after the introduction of lockdown measures, with significantly higher estimates in Bergamo (9.4, 95% CI 9.1-9.7).CONCLUSION:
Excess mortality was significantly higher than that officially attributed to COVID-19, disclosing its hidden burden likely due to indirect effects on the health system. Time-series analyses highlighted the impact of lockdown restrictions, with a lower excess mortality in the HPA where there was a smaller delay between the epidemic outbreak and their enforcement.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
23120541.00458-2020
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