Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To explore the early features of COVID-19 epidemic in Shaanxi Province so as to provide scientific basis for optimizing the prevention strategies and evaluating the effects of interventions. METHODS: The epidemic data that were reported through official networks of Shaanxi Province from Dec. 31, 2019 to Feb. 13, 2020 and the case data from Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention were collected, the population data during the same period were obtained from Shaanxi Statistical Yearbook. The descriptive epidemiological analysis was performed by using Excel and ArcGIS software, the transmission dynamics model of COVID-19 was built based on Berkeley Madonna software experiment platform, and the rules of occurrence and progression of the disease were observed. RESULTS: By Feb. 13, 2020, the accumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 reached 230 in Shaanxi Province, and the incidence rate was about 0.59 per 100 000. The male cases were more than the female cases, and the patients aged between 40 and 50 years old were dominant. The COVID-19 was highly prevalent in Xi'an, Ankang and Hanzhong. The SEIAR model showed that the basic regeneration index(R0) of the epidemic in Shaanxi Province was about 2.95, concluding that the beginning of Feb. 2020 was the peak period of outbreak of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 epidemic in Shaanxi province shows a fast spreading trend. The theoretical number of confirmed cases that is predicted based on the SEIAR model can provide basis for prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic and curb the spread of the epidemic.