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What Is Required to Prevent a Second Major Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 upon Lifting Quarantine in Wuhan City, China.
Zhang, Lei; Shen, Mingwang; Ma, Xiaomeng; Su, Shu; Gong, Wenfeng; Wang, Jing; Tao, Yusha; Zou, Zhuoru; Zhao, Rui; Lau, Joseph T F; Li, Wei; Liu, Feng; Ye, Kai; Wang, Youfa; Zhuang, Guihua; Fairley, Christopher K.
  • Zhang L; China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China.
  • Shen M; Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia.
  • Ma X; Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
  • Su S; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001 Henan, China.
  • Gong W; China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China.
  • Wang J; Institute of Health Policy Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
  • Tao Y; China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China.
  • Zou Z; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • Zhao R; China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China.
  • Lau JTF; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
  • Li W; China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China.
  • Liu F; China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, PR China.
  • Ye K; Centre for Research Behaviors, Centre for Health Behaviours Research, School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
  • Wang Y; Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210009 Jiangsu, China.
  • Zhuang G; Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, 710054 Shaanxi, China.
  • Fairley CK; MOE Key Lab for Intelligent Networks & Networks Security, Faculty of Electronics and Information Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049 China.
Innovation (N Y) ; 1(1): 100006, 2020 May 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-833425
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Semantic information from SemMedBD (by NLM)
1. Quarantine PRECEDES Prophylactic treatment
Subject
Quarantine
Predicate
PRECEDES
Object
Prophylactic treatment
2. Quarantine PRECEDES Prophylactic treatment
Subject
Quarantine
Predicate
PRECEDES
Object
Prophylactic treatment
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

The Chinese government implemented a metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan city on 23rd January 2020 to curb the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19. Lifting of this quarantine is imminent. We modelled the effects of two key health interventions on the epidemic when the quarantine is lifted.

METHODS:

We constructed a compartmental dynamic model to forecast the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic at different quarantine lifting dates and investigated the impact of different rates of public contact and facial mask usage on the epidemic.

RESULTS:

We projected a declining trend of the COVID-19 epidemic if the current quarantine strategy continues, and Wuhan would record the last new confirmed cases in late April 2020. At the end of the epidemic, 65,733 (45,722-99,015) individuals would be infected by the virus, among which 16,166 (11,238-24,603, 24.6%) were through public contacts, 45,996 (31,892-69,565, 69.7%) through household contact, and 3,571 (2,521-5,879, 5.5%) through hospital contacts (including 778 (553-1,154) non-COVID-19 patients and 2,786 (1,969-4,791) medical staff). A total of 2,821 (1,634-6,361) would die of COVID-19 related pneumonia in Wuhan. Early quarantine lifting on 21st March is viable only if Wuhan residents sustain a high facial mask usage of ≥85% and a pre-quarantine level public contact rate. Delaying city resumption to mid/late April would relax the requirement of facial mask usage to ≥75% at the same contact rate.

CONCLUSIONS:

The prevention of a second epidemic is viable after the metropolitan-wide quarantine is lifted but requires a sustaining high facial mask usage and a low public contact rate.

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Language: English Journal: Innovation (N Y) Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Language: English Journal: Innovation (N Y) Year: 2020 Document Type: Article