Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase.
Nat Commun
; 11(1): 5006, 2020 10 06.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-834879
ABSTRACT
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI 0.13-0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Disease Outbreaks
/
Coronavirus Infections
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Science
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41467-020-18836-4
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