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Epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and its implication for infectivity among patients in China, 1 January to 11 February 2020.
Lu, Qing-Bin; Zhang, Yong; Liu, Ming-Jin; Zhang, Hai-Yang; Jalali, Neda; Zhang, An-Ran; Li, Jia-Chen; Zhao, Han; Song, Qian-Qian; Zhao, Tian-Shuo; Zhao, Jing; Liu, Han-Yu; Du, Juan; Teng, Ai-Ying; Zhou, Zi-Wei; Zhou, Shi-Xia; Che, Tian-Le; Wang, Tao; Yang, Tong; Guan, Xiu-Gang; Peng, Xue-Fang; Wang, Yu-Na; Zhang, Yuan-Yuan; Lv, Shou-Ming; Liu, Bao-Cheng; Shi, Wen-Qiang; Zhang, Xiao-Ai; Duan, Xiao-Gang; Liu, Wei; Yang, Yang; Fang, Li-Qun.
  • Lu QB; Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
  • Zhang Y; These authors contributed equally to this manuscript.
  • Liu MJ; These authors contributed equally to this manuscript.
  • Zhang HY; School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
  • Jalali N; Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, United States.
  • Zhang AR; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Li JC; Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, United States.
  • Zhao H; Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, United States.
  • Song QQ; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Zhao TS; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Zhao J; School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
  • Liu HY; School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
  • Du J; Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
  • Teng AY; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Zhou ZW; Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
  • Zhou SX; Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
  • Che TL; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Wang T; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Yang T; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Guan XG; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Peng XF; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Wang YN; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Zhang YY; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Lv SM; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Liu BC; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Shi WQ; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Zhang XA; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Duan XG; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Liu W; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Yang Y; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
  • Fang LQ; School of Statistics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Euro Surveill ; 25(40)2020 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-841040
ABSTRACT
BackgroundThe natural history of disease in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remained obscure during the early pandemic.AimOur objective was to estimate epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and assess the relative infectivity of the incubation period.MethodsWe estimated the distributions of four epidemiological parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using a large database of COVID-19 cases and potential transmission pairs of cases, and assessed their heterogeneity by demographics, epidemic phase and geographical region. We further calculated the time of peak infectivity and quantified the proportion of secondary infections during the incubation period.ResultsThe median incubation period was 7.2 (95% confidence interval (CI) 6.9‒7.5) days. The median serial and generation intervals were similar, 4.7 (95% CI 4.2‒5.3) and 4.6 (95% CI 4.2‒5.1) days, respectively. Paediatric cases < 18 years had a longer incubation period than adult age groups (p = 0.007). The median incubation period increased from 4.4 days before 25 January to 11.5 days after 31 January (p < 0.001), whereas the median serial (generation) interval contracted from 5.9 (4.8) days before 25 January to 3.4 (3.7) days after. The median time from symptom onset to discharge was also shortened from 18.3 before 22 January to 14.1 days after. Peak infectivity occurred 1 day before symptom onset on average, and the incubation period accounted for 70% of transmission.ConclusionThe high infectivity during the incubation period led to short generation and serial intervals, necessitating aggressive control measures such as early case finding and quarantine of close contacts.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Coronavirus / Infectious Disease Incubation Period Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Long Covid Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged / Young adult Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 1560-7917.Es.2020.25.40.2000250

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Coronavirus / Infectious Disease Incubation Period Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Long Covid Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged / Young adult Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 1560-7917.Es.2020.25.40.2000250