Mathematical modelling on COVID-19 transmission impacts with preventive measures: a case study of Tanzania.
J Biol Dyn
; 14(1): 748-766, 2020 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-842271
ABSTRACT
The outbreak of COVID-19 was first experienced in Wuhan City, China, during December 2019 before it rapidly spread over globally. This paper has proposed a mathematical model for studying its transmission dynamics in the presence of face mask wearing and hospitalization services of human population in Tanzania. Disease-free and endemic equilibria were determined and subsequently their local and global stabilities were carried out. The trace-determinant approach was used in the local stability of disease-free equilibrium point while Lyapunov function technique was used to determine the global stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. Basic reproduction number, R0 , was determined in which its numerical results revealed that, in the presence of face masks wearing and medication services or hospitalization as preventive measure for its transmission, R0=0.698 while in their absence R0=3.8 . This supports its analytical solution that the disease-free equilibrium point E0 is asymptotically stable whenever R0<1 , while endemic equilibrium point E∗ is globally asymptotically stable for R0>1 . Therefore, this paper proves the necessity of face masks wearing and hospitalization services to COVID-19 patients to contain the disease spread to the population.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Models, Biological
Type of study:
Case report
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Africa
Language:
English
Journal:
J Biol Dyn
Journal subject:
Biology
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
17513758.2020.1823494
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