The impact of mask-wearing and shelter-in-place on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.
Int J Infect Dis
; 101: 334-341, 2020 Dec.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-846859
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
A hasty reopening has led to a resurgence of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States (US). We aimed to quantify the impact of several public health measures including non-medical mask-wearing, shelter-in-place, and detection of silent infections to help inform COVID-19 mitigation strategies.METHODS:
We extended a previously established agent-based disease transmission model and parameterized it with estimates of COVID-19 characteristics and US population demographics. We implemented non-medical mask-wearing, shelter-in-place, and case isolation as control measures, and quantified their impact on reducing the attack rate and adverse clinical outcomes.RESULTS:
We found that non-medical mask-wearing by 75% of the population reduced infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by 37.7% (interquartile range (IQR) 36.1-39.4%), 44.2% (IQR 42.9-45.8%), and 47.2% (IQR 45.5-48.7%), respectively, in the absence of a shelter-in-place strategy. Sheltering individuals aged 50 to 64 years of age was the most efficient strategy, decreasing attack rate, hospitalizations, and deaths by over 82% when combined with mask-wearing. Outbreak control was achieved in the simulated scenarios and the attack rate was reduced to below 1% when at least 33% of silent pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic infections were identified and isolated.CONCLUSIONS:
Mask-wearing, even with the use of non-medical masks, has a substantial impact on outbreak control. A judicious implementation of shelter-in-place strategies remains an important public health intervention amid ongoing outbreaks.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Emergency Shelter
/
COVID-19
/
Masks
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Int J Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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