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The role of environmental factors on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak: an initial assessment in two spatial scales.
Poirier, Canelle; Luo, Wei; Majumder, Maimuna S; Liu, Dianbo; Mandl, Kenneth D; Mooring, Todd A; Santillana, Mauricio.
  • Poirier C; Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, 02215, USA. canelle.poirier@outlook.fr.
  • Luo W; Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 02215, USA. canelle.poirier@outlook.fr.
  • Majumder MS; Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.
  • Liu D; Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.
  • Mandl KD; Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.
  • Mooring TA; Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.
  • Santillana M; Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 17002, 2020 10 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-851311
ABSTRACT
First identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has affected over 16,800,000 people worldwide as of July 29, 2020 and was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. Influenza studies have shown that influenza viruses survive longer on surfaces or in droplets in cold and dry air, thus increasing the likelihood of subsequent transmission. A similar hypothesis has been postulated for the transmission of COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. It is important to propose methodologies to understand the effects of environmental factors on this ongoing outbreak to support decision-making pertaining to disease control. Here, we examine the spatial variability of the basic reproductive numbers of COVID-19 across provinces and cities in China and show that environmental variables alone cannot explain this variability. Our findings suggest that changes in weather (i.e., increase of temperature and humidity as spring and summer months arrive in the Northern Hemisphere) will not necessarily lead to declines in case counts without the implementation of drastic public health interventions.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Humidity Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-020-74089-7

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Humidity Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-020-74089-7