[Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic spread in a megacity].
Vopr Virusol
; 65(4): 203-211, 2020 09 03.
Article
in Russian
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-859451
ABSTRACT
The purpose of the study is to analyze patterns demonstrated by the COVID-19 epidemic process in a megacity during the increase, stabilization and reduction in the incidence, and to evaluate the effectiveness of the epidemic prevention measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS:
The comprehensive study incorporating epidemiological, molecular genetic and statistical research methods was conducted to analyze the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Moscow during the COVID- 19 pandemic. RESULTS ANDDISCUSSION:
It was found that the exponential growth in COVID-19 cases was prevented due to the most stringent control and restrictive measures deployed in Moscow to break the chains of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and due to people who were very disciplined in complying with the self-isolation rules. The analysis of the dynamics in detection of new COVID-19 cases showed that in a megacity, the impact of social distancing and self-isolation would become apparent only after 3.5 incubation periods, where the maximum length of the period is 14 days. It was discovered that the detection frequency of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in relatively healthy population and its dynamics are important monitoring parameters, especially during the increase and stabilization in the COVID-19 incidence, and are instrumental in predicting the development of the epidemic situation within a range of 1-2 incubation periods (14-28 days). In Moscow, the case fatality rate was 1.73% over the observation period (6/3/2020-23/6/2020).CONCLUSION:
The epidemiological analysis of the COVID-19 situation in Moscow showed certain patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 spread and helped evaluate the effectiveness of the epidemic prevention measures aimed at breaking the routes of transmission of the pathogen.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Epidemics
/
COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
Russian
Journal:
Vopr Virusol
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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