Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries.
Kontis, Vasilis; Bennett, James E; Rashid, Theo; Parks, Robbie M; Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan; Guillot, Michel; Asaria, Perviz; Zhou, Bin; Battaglini, Marco; Corsetti, Gianni; McKee, Martin; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Mathers, Colin D; Ezzati, Majid.
  • Kontis V; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Bennett JE; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Rashid T; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Parks RM; The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Pearson-Stuttard J; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Guillot M; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Asaria P; French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), Paris, France.
  • Zhou B; Population Studies Center, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
  • Battaglini M; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Corsetti G; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • McKee M; Directorate for Social Statistics and Population Census, Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat), Rome, Italy.
  • Di Cesare M; Directorate for Social Statistics and Population Census, Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat), Rome, Italy.
  • Mathers CD; Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Ezzati M; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Nat Med ; 26(12): 1919-1928, 2020 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-872715
ABSTRACT
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100-231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30-44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31-45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Developed Countries / Population Dynamics / Demography / Mortality / Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study / Risk factors Limits: Female / Humans / Male Language: English Journal: Nat Med Journal subject: Molecular Biology / Medicine Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41591-020-1112-0

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Developed Countries / Population Dynamics / Demography / Mortality / Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study / Risk factors Limits: Female / Humans / Male Language: English Journal: Nat Med Journal subject: Molecular Biology / Medicine Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41591-020-1112-0