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Low dispersion in the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases implies difficulty in control.
He, Daihai; Zhao, Shi; Xu, Xiaoke; Lin, Qiangying; Zhuang, Zian; Cao, Peihua; Wang, Maggie H; Lou, Yijun; Xiao, Li; Wu, Ye; Yang, Lin.
  • He D; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk.
  • Zhao S; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
  • Xu X; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China.
  • Lin Q; College of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian Minzu University, Dalian, 116600, China.
  • Zhuang Z; Michigan Institute for Data Science at University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
  • Cao P; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
  • Wang MH; Clinical Research Center, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Lou Y; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
  • Xiao L; CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China.
  • Wu Y; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
  • Yang L; College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 1558, 2020 Oct 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-873968
ABSTRACT
The individual infectiousness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), quantified by the number of secondary cases of a typical index case, is conventionally modelled by a negative-binomial (NB) distribution. Based on patient data of 9120 confirmed cases in China, we calculated the variation of the individual infectiousness, i.e., the dispersion parameter k of the NB distribution, at 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.59, 0.98). This suggests that the dispersion in the individual infectiousness is probably low, thus COVID-19 infection is relatively easy to sustain in the population and more challenging to control. Instead of focusing on the much fewer super spreading events, we also need to focus on almost every case to effectively reduce transmission.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Pandemics Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: BMC Public Health Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12889-020-09624-2

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Pandemics Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: BMC Public Health Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12889-020-09624-2