Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic.
Earn, David J D; Ma, Junling; Poinar, Hendrik; Dushoff, Jonathan; Bolker, Benjamin M.
  • Earn DJD; Department of Mathematics & Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; earn@math.mcmaster.ca.
  • Ma J; Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada.
  • Poinar H; Michael G. deGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada.
  • Dushoff J; Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 3R4, Canada.
  • Bolker BM; Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 117(44): 27703-27711, 2020 11 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-880729
ABSTRACT
Historical records reveal the temporal patterns of a sequence of plague epidemics in London, United Kingdom, from the 14th to 17th centuries. Analysis of these records shows that later epidemics spread significantly faster ("accelerated"). Between the Black Death of 1348 and the later epidemics that culminated with the Great Plague of 1665, we estimate that the epidemic growth rate increased fourfold. Currently available data do not provide enough information to infer the mode of plague transmission in any given epidemic; nevertheless, order-of-magnitude estimates of epidemic parameters suggest that the observed slow growth rates in the 14th century are inconsistent with direct (pneumonic) transmission. We discuss the potential roles of demographic and ecological factors, such as climate change or human or rat population density, in driving the observed acceleration.
Subject(s)
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Plague / Pandemics Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Animals / Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Plague / Pandemics Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Animals / Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Year: 2020 Document Type: Article