Modeling the Number of Confirmed Cases and Deaths from the COVID-19 Pandemic in the UK and Forecasting from April 15 to May 30, 2020.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The UK is one of the epicenters of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the world. As of April 14, there have been 93 873 confirmed patients of COVID-19 in the UK and 12 107 deaths with confirmed infection. On April 14, it was reported that COVID-19 was the cause of more than half of the deaths in London. METHODS: The present paper addresses the modeling and forecasting of the outbreak of COVID-19 in the UK. This modeling must be accomplished through a 2-part time series model to study the number of confirmed cases and deaths. The period we aimed at a forecast was 46 days from April 15 to May 30, 2020. All the computations and simulations were conducted on Matlab R2015b, and the average curves and confidence intervals were calculated based on 100 simulations of the fitted models. RESULTS: According to the obtained model, we expect that the cumulative number of confirmed cases will reach 282 000 with an 80% confidence interval (242 000 to 316 500) on May 30, from 93 873 on April 14. In addition, it is expected that, over this period, the number of daily new confirmed cases will fall to the interval 1330 to 6450 with the probability of 0.80 by the point estimation around 3100. Regarding death, our model establishes that the real case fatality rate of the pandemic in the UK approaches 11% (80% confidence interval 8%-15%). Accordingly, we forecast that the total death in the UK will rise to 35 000 (28 000-50 000 with the probability of 80%). CONCLUSIONS: The drawback of this study is the shortage of observations. Also, to conduct a more exact study, it is possible to take the number of the tests into account as an explanatory variable besides time.