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The role of case importation in explaining differences in early SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Canada-A mathematical modeling study of surveillance data.
Godin, Arnaud; Xia, Yiqing; Buckeridge, David L; Mishra, Sharmistha; Douwes-Schultz, Dirk; Shen, Yannan; Lavigne, Maxime; Drolet, Mélanie; Schmidt, Alexandra M; Brisson, Marc; Maheu-Giroux, Mathieu.
  • Godin A; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, Quebec, Canada. Electronic address: arnaud.godin@mail.mcgil.ca.
  • Xia Y; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, Quebec, Canada. Electronic address: yiqing.xia@mail.mcgill.ca.
  • Buckeridge DL; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, Quebec, Canada. Electronic address: david.buckeridge@mcgill.ca.
  • Mishra S; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Department of Medicine, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Electronic address: sharmistha.mishra@utoro
  • Douwes-Schultz D; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, Quebec, Canada. Electronic address: dirk.douwes-schultz@mail.mcgill.ca.
  • Shen Y; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, Quebec, Canada. Electronic address: yannan.shen@mail.mcgill.ca.
  • Lavigne M; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, Quebec, Canada. Electronic address: maxime.lavigne@mail.mcgill.ca.
  • Drolet M; Centre de Recherche du CHU de Quebec and Département de Médecine Sociale et Préventive, Université Laval, Ville de Quebec, Quebec, Canada. Electronic address: Melanie.Drolet@crchudequebec.ulaval.ca.
  • Schmidt AM; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, Quebec, Canada. Electronic address: alexandra.schmidt@mcgill.ca.
  • Brisson M; Centre de Recherche du CHU de Quebec and Département de Médecine Sociale et Préventive, Université Laval, Ville de Quebec, Quebec, Canada. Electronic address: marc.brisson@crchudequebec.ulaval.ca.
  • Maheu-Giroux M; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, Quebec, Canada. Electronic address: mathieu.maheu-giroux@mcgill.ca.
Int J Infect Dis ; 102: 254-259, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-893931
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE:

The North American coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) epidemic exhibited distinct early trajectories. In Canada, Quebec had the highest COVID-19 burden and its earlier March school break, taking place two weeks before those in other provinces, could have shaped early transmission dynamics.

METHODS:

We combined a semi-mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with detailed surveillance data from Quebec and Ontario (initially accounting for 85% of Canadian cases) to explore the impact of case importation and timing of control measures on cumulative hospitalizations.

RESULTS:

A total of 1544 and 1150 cases among returning travelers were laboratory-confirmed in Quebec and Ontario, respectively (symptoms onset ≤03-25-2020). Hospitalizations could have been reduced by 55% (95% CrI 51%-59%) if no cases had been imported after Quebec's March break. However, if Quebec had experienced Ontario's number of introductions, hospitalizations would have only been reduced by 12% (95% CrI 8%-16%). Early public health measures mitigated the epidemic spread as a one-week delay could have resulted in twice as many hospitalizations (95% CrI 1.7-2.1).

CONCLUSION:

Beyond introductions, factors such as public health preparedness, responses and capacity could play a role in explaining interprovincial differences. In a context where regions are considering lifting travel restrictions, coordinated strategies and proactive measures are to be considered.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Travel / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Limits: Adult / Aged / Humans / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Int J Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Travel / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study Limits: Adult / Aged / Humans / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Int J Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2021 Document Type: Article