The role of case importation in explaining differences in early SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Canada-A mathematical modeling study of surveillance data.
Int J Infect Dis
; 102: 254-259, 2021 Jan.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-893931
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
The North American coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) epidemic exhibited distinct early trajectories. In Canada, Quebec had the highest COVID-19 burden and its earlier March school break, taking place two weeks before those in other provinces, could have shaped early transmission dynamics.METHODS:
We combined a semi-mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with detailed surveillance data from Quebec and Ontario (initially accounting for 85% of Canadian cases) to explore the impact of case importation and timing of control measures on cumulative hospitalizations.RESULTS:
A total of 1544 and 1150 cases among returning travelers were laboratory-confirmed in Quebec and Ontario, respectively (symptoms onset ≤03-25-2020). Hospitalizations could have been reduced by 55% (95% CrI 51%-59%) if no cases had been imported after Quebec's March break. However, if Quebec had experienced Ontario's number of introductions, hospitalizations would have only been reduced by 12% (95% CrI 8%-16%). Early public health measures mitigated the epidemic spread as a one-week delay could have resulted in twice as many hospitalizations (95% CrI 1.7-2.1).CONCLUSION:
Beyond introductions, factors such as public health preparedness, responses and capacity could play a role in explaining interprovincial differences. In a context where regions are considering lifting travel restrictions, coordinated strategies and proactive measures are to be considered.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Travel
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Humans
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Int J Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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