Prognosticating the Spread of Covid-19 Pandemic Based on Optimal Arima Estimators.

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 cases have been reported as a global threat and several studies are being conducted using various modelling techniques to evaluate patterns of disease dispersion in the upcoming weeks. Here we propose a simple statistical model that could be used to predict the epidemiological extent of community spread of COVID-19 from the explicit data based on optimal ARIMA model estimators. Raw data was retrieved on confirmed cases of COVID-19 from Johns Hopkins University (https//github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19) and the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted based on cumulative daily figures of confirmed cases aggregated globally for ten major countries to predict their incidence trend. Statistical analysis was completed by using R 3.5.3 software. The optimal ARIMA model having the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value for US (0,2,0); Spain (1,2,0); France (0,2,1); Germany (3,2,2); Iran (1,2,1); China (0,2,1); Russia (3,2,1); India (2,2,2); Australia (1,2,0) and South Africa (0,2,2) imparted the nowcasting of trends for the upcoming weeks. These parameters are (p, d, q) where p refers to the number of autoregressive terms, d refers to the number of times the series has to be differenced before it becomes stationary, and q refers to the number of moving average terms. Results obtained from the ARIMA model showed a significant decrease in cases in Australia; a stable case for China and rising cases have been observed in other countries. This study predicted the possible proliferate of COVID-19, although spreading significantly depends upon the various control and measurement policy taken by each country.