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Immunity after COVID-19: Protection or sensitization?
Danchin, Antoine; Turinici, Gabriel.
  • Danchin A; Kodikos Labs, Institut Cochin, 75014, Paris, France. Electronic address: antoine.danchin@normalesup.org.
  • Turinici G; CEREMADE, Université Paris Dauphine - PSL, Paris 75016, France. Electronic address: Gabriel.Turinici@dauphine.fr.
Math Biosci ; 331: 108499, 2021 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-899298
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ABSTRACT
Motivated by historical and present clinical observations, we discuss the possible unfavorable evolution of the immunity (similar to documented antibody-dependent enhancement scenarios) after a first infection with COVID-19. More precisely we ask the question of how the epidemic outcomes are affected if the initial infection does not provide immunity but rather sensitization to future challenges. We first provide background comparison with the 2003 SARS epidemic. Then we use a compartmental epidemic model structured by immunity level that we fit to available data; using several scenarios of the fragilization dynamics, we derive quantitative insights into the additional expected numbers of severe cases and deaths.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Antibody-Dependent Enhancement / Reinfection / COVID-19 / Models, Biological Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Math Biosci Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Antibody-Dependent Enhancement / Reinfection / COVID-19 / Models, Biological Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Math Biosci Year: 2021 Document Type: Article