Mathematical analysis for COVID-19 resurgence in the contaminated environment.
Math Biosci Eng
; 17(6): 6909-6927, 2020 10 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-907612
ABSTRACT
A mathematical model is proposed that incorporates the key routes of COVID-19 resurgence human-to-human transmission and indirect transmission by inhaling infectious aerosols or contacting public facilities with the virus. The threshold condition for the disease invasion is established, and the relationships among the basic reproduction number, peak value and final size are formulated. The model is validated by matching the model with the data on cases of COVID-19 resurgence in April of 2020 from Heilongjiang province in China, which indicates that the predictive values from the mathematical model fit the real data very well. Based upon the computations from the model and analytical formulae, we reveal how the indirect transmission from environmental pathogens contribute to the disease outbreak and how the input of asymptomatic individuals affect the disease spread. These findings highlight the importance of mass detection and environmental disinfection in the control of COVID resurgence.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Disinfection
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Math Biosci Eng
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Mbe.2020357
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