COVID-19 virus outbreak forecasting of registered and recovered cases after sixty day lockdown in Italy: A data driven model approach.
J Microbiol Immunol Infect
; 53(3): 396-403, 2020 Jun.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-90956
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Till 31 March 2020, 105,792 COVID-19 cases were confirmed in Italy including 15,726 deaths which explains how worst the epidemic has affected the country. After the announcement of lockdown in Italy on 9 March 2020, situation was becoming stable since last days of March. In view of this, it is important to forecast the COVID-19 evaluation of Italy condition and the possible effects, if this lock down could continue for another 60 days.METHODS:
COVID-19 infected patient data has extracted from the Italian Health Ministry website includes registered and recovered cases from mid February to end March. Adoption of seasonal ARIMA forecasting package with R statistical model was done.RESULTS:
Predictions were done with 93.75% of accuracy for registered case models and 84.4% of accuracy for recovered case models. The forecasting of infected patients could be reach the value of 182,757, and recovered cases could be registered value of 81,635 at end of May.CONCLUSIONS:
This study highlights the importance of country lockdown and self isolation in control the disease transmissibility among Italian population through data driven model analysis. Our findings suggest that nearly 35% decrement of registered cases and 66% growth of recovered cases will be possible.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Quarantine
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
J Microbiol Immunol Infect
Journal subject:
Allergy and Immunology
/
Microbiology
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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