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Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states.
Laxminarayan, Ramanan; Wahl, Brian; Dudala, Shankar Reddy; Gopal, K; Mohan B, Chandra; Neelima, S; Jawahar Reddy, K S; Radhakrishnan, J; Lewnard, Joseph A.
  • Laxminarayan R; Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy, New Delhi, India.
  • Wahl B; Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
  • Dudala SR; Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Gopal K; Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Mohan B C; International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Neelima S; Department of Community Medicine, Government Medical College, Kadapa, Andhra Pradesh, India.
  • Jawahar Reddy KS; Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries Department, Government of Tamil Nadu, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.
  • Radhakrishnan J; Backward Classes, Most Backward Classes, and Minorities Welfare Department, Government of Tamil Nadu, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.
  • Lewnard JA; Department of Community Medicine, Guntur Medical College, Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, India.
Science ; 370(6517): 691-697, 2020 11 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-913667
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ABSTRACT
Although most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in low-resource countries, little is known about the epidemiology of the disease in such contexts. Data from the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh provide a detailed view into severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission pathways and mortality in a high-incidence setting. Reported cases and deaths have been concentrated in younger cohorts than would be expected from observations in higher-income countries, even after accounting for demographic differences across settings. Among 575,071 individuals exposed to 84,965 confirmed cases, infection probabilities ranged from 4.7 to 10.7% for low-risk and high-risk contact types, respectively. Same-age contacts were associated with the greatest infection risk. Case fatality ratios spanned 0.05% at ages of 5 to 17 years to 16.6% at ages of 85 years or more. Primary data from low-resource countries are urgently needed to guide control measures.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections Type of study: Incidence study / Observational study / Prognostic study / Screening study Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Science Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Science.abd7672

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections Type of study: Incidence study / Observational study / Prognostic study / Screening study Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Science Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Science.abd7672