Drawing inference from nationwide lockdown as a response towards novel Cornavirus-19 (CoVID-19) epidemic in India.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Lockdown effectively can only result in relative freezing of populations that is expected to slow down the disease spread rather than zeroing it. Flattening of epidemic curve Current analysis was carried out to observe a pattern in the rise of CoVID-19 cases along with concurrent announcements of strategies to control the spread of disease. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data in from of daily number of cases and issued notifications were studied from the official website of Government of India from 30/01/2020 to 03/05/2020. Qualitative assessment with thematic analysis was carried out for notifications issued by the government. The fit to data on cumulative cases was observed with R2 and checked for linearity, logarithmic, polynomial, and exponential growth. Daily growth fraction (Gt) was calculated based on the difference between current and previous number of cases, thereafter daily doubling time (Td(t)) was estimated. RESULTS: Daily reported cases were entered and cumulative growth of cases observed with a polynomial increasing pattern (third-order) with better fit (R2 0.999). Total 108 notifications were issued, and as compared to phase-0 and 1 (87.0%), few (12.9%) notifications were issued in phase-2 of study period. As compared to phase-0 and 1, rising trend of cumulative cases and Td(t) was high in phase-2. CONCLUSION: Across phases of lockdown along with a rising trend of COVID-19 cases, the country has managed to increase the doubling time of cases with an effort to flatten the epidemic curve.