The interplay of movement and spatiotemporal variation in transmission degrades pandemic control.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 117(48): 30104-30106, 2020 12 01.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-919354
ABSTRACT
Successful public health regimes for COVID-19 push below unity long-term regional Rt -the average number of secondary cases caused by an infectious individual. We use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for two coupled populations to make the conceptual point that asynchronous, variable local control, together with movement between populations, elevates long-term regional Rt , and cumulative cases, and may even prevent disease eradication that is otherwise possible. For effective pandemic mitigation strategies, it is critical that models encompass both spatiotemporal heterogeneity in transmission and movement.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
/
COVID-19
/
Movement
Type of study:
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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