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Scenarios to Manage the Demand for N95 Respirators for Healthcare Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Sun, Yinxiaohe; Otomaru, Hirono; Quaye, Sharon Esi Duoduwa; Somani, Jyoti; Bagdasarian, Natasha; Beh, Darius L L; Fisher, Dale A; Cook, Alex R; Dickens, Borame L.
  • Sun Y; Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.
  • Otomaru H; Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.
  • Quaye SED; Department of Virology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan.
  • Somani J; Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.
  • Bagdasarian N; Division of Infectious Diseases, National University Hospital, Singapore.
  • Beh DLL; Division of Infectious Diseases, National University Hospital, Singapore.
  • Fisher DA; Division of Infectious Diseases, National University Hospital, Singapore.
  • Cook AR; Division of Infectious Diseases, National University Hospital, Singapore.
  • Dickens BL; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
Risk Manag Healthc Policy ; 13: 2489-2496, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-921104
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

By estimating N95 respirator demand based on simulated epidemics, we aim to assist planning efforts requiring estimations of respirator demand for the healthcare system to continue operating safely in the coming months.

METHODS:

We assess respiratory needs over the course of mild, moderate and severe epidemic scenarios within Singapore as a case study using a transmission dynamic model. The number of respirators required within the respiratory isolation wards and intensive care units was estimated over the course of the epidemic. We also considered single-use, extended-use and prolonged-use strategies for N95 respirators for use by healthcare workers treating suspected but negative (misclassified) or confirmed COVID-19 patients.

RESULTS:

Depending on the confirmed to misclassified case ratio, from 10 to 110, a range of 117.1 million to 1.1 billion masks are required for single-use. This decreases to 71.6-784.4 million for extended-use and 12.8-148.2 million for prolonged-use, representing a 31.8-38.9% and 86.5-89.1% reduction, respectively.

CONCLUSION:

An extended-use policy should be considered when short-term supply chains are strained but planning measures are in place to ensure long-term availability. With severe shortage expectations from a severe epidemic, as some European countries have experienced, prolonged use is necessary to prolong supply.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Risk Manag Healthc Policy Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: RMHP.S275496

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Risk Manag Healthc Policy Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: RMHP.S275496