Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions.
Nat Hum Behav
; 4(12): 1303-1312, 2020 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-926236
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is critical to inform future preparedness response plans. Here we quantify the impact of 6,068 hierarchically coded NPIs implemented in 79 territories on the effective reproduction number, Rt, of COVID-19. We propose a modelling approach that combines four computational techniques merging statistical, inference and artificial intelligence tools. We validate our findings with two external datasets recording 42,151 additional NPIs from 226 countries. Our results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific 'what-if' scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of NPIs depends on the local context such as timing of their adoption, opening the way for forecasting the effectiveness of future interventions.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Global Health
/
Basic Reproduction Number
/
COVID-19
/
Government
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Hum Behav
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41562-020-01009-0
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