Crowding Effects Dominate Demographic Attributes in COVID-19 Cases.
Int J Infect Dis
; 102: 509-516, 2021 Jan.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-926973
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
With an eye toward possible public policy implications, our objective is to identify the socio-economic and demographic factors that drive the large variation in COVID-19 incidence rates observed within relatively compact geographic regions, and to quantify the relative impact of each of these factors. We use international comparisons as a starting point.METHODS:
New York City, consisting of some 175 zip codes, is an ideal arena to pursue the above study given the large variation in case incidence rates across zip codes. We conducted systematic regression studies employing data with zip code granularity. Our model specifications are based on a well-established epidemiologic model that explains the effects of household sizes on R0.RESULTS:
Average household size emerges as the single most important driver behind the large variation in COVID-19 incidence rates. It independently explains 62% of the variation. The percentage of the population above the age of 65 and the percentage below the poverty line are also strongly positively associated with zip code incidence rates. As to ethnic/racial characteristics, the percentages of African Americans, Hispanics and Asians within the population are significantly associated, but the magnitude of the impact is smaller. (The proportion of Asians within a zip code has a negative association.) Contrary to common belief, population density, by itself, does not have a significantly positive impact (other than when a high population is driven by large household sizes).CONCLUSION:
Our findings support implemented and proposed policies to quarantine patients and separate infected individuals from families or dormitories; they also support newly revised nursing home admission policies.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Crowding
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Qualitative research
/
Randomized controlled trials
/
Systematic review/Meta Analysis
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Int J Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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