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The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States.
Liu, Luyu; Miller, Harvey J; Scheff, Jonathan.
  • Liu L; Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.
  • Miller HJ; Center for Urban and Regional Analysis, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.
  • Scheff J; Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America.
PLoS One ; 15(11): e0242476, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-934335
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app, we fit logistic functions to model the decline in daily demand and derive key parameters base value, the apparent minimal level of demand and cliff and base points, representing the initial date when transit demand decline began and the final date when the decline rate attenuated. Regression analyses reveal that communities with higher proportions of essential workers, vulnerable populations (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years old), and more coronavirus Google searches tend to maintain higher levels of minimal demand during COVID-19. Approximately half of the agencies experienced their decline before the local spread of COVID-19 likely began; most of these are in the US Midwest. Almost no transit systems finished their decline periods before local community spread. We also compare hourly demand profiles for each system before and during COVID-19 using ordinary Procrustes distance analysis. The results show substantial departures from typical weekday hourly demand profiles. Our results provide insights into public transit as an essential service during a pandemic.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Transportation / Public Sector / Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Systematic review/Meta Analysis Limits: Adult / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0242476

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Transportation / Public Sector / Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Systematic review/Meta Analysis Limits: Adult / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0242476