Strong policies control the spread of COVID-19 in China.
J Med Virol
; 92(10): 1980-1987, 2020 10.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-935087
ABSTRACT
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbroke in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, affecting more than 200 countries and regions. This study aimed to predict the development of the epidemic with specific interventional policies applied in China and evaluate their effectiveness. COVID-19 data of Hubei Province and the next five most affected provinces were collected from daily case reports of COVID-19 on the Health Committee official website of these provinces. The number of current cases, defined as the number of confirmed cases minus the number of cured cases and those who have died, were examined in this study. A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model was used to assess the effects of interventional policies on the epidemic. In this study, 28 January was day 0 of the model. The results of the modified SEIR model showed that the number of current cases in Hubei and Zhejiang provinces tended to be stabilized after 70 days and after 60 days in the four other provinces. The predicted number of current cases without policy intervention was shown to far exceed that with policy intervention. The estimated number of COVID-19 cases in Hubei Province with policy intervention was predicted to peak at 51 222, whereas that without policy intervention was predicted to reach 157 721. Based on the results of the model, strong interventional policies were found to be vital components of epidemic control. Applying such policies is likely to shorten the duration of the epidemic and reduce the number of new cases.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Communicable Disease Control
/
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
/
Health Policy
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
J Med Virol
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Jmv.25934
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