COVID-19, Black Swan events and the future of disaster risk management in India

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 has affected the whole world, and India is no exception. In India, the threat posed by COVID-19 was recognized early in its trajectory. The enormity of the problem was appropriately gauged and we committed ourselves to a scientific evidence-based approach. Under the Prime Minister's leadership, the country has put up a united fight against the pandemic. All strata of society – all social and economic groups, different regions of the country, the civil society, and the industry – came together to take on this common challenge. There has been a clear recognition that everyone is susceptible – whether rich or poor, whether from the east or the west – and this has to be a united, collective fight. National Disaster Management Authority(s preliminary analysis suggested five key lessons 1) Need for more dynamic risk assessment tools, 2) No substitute for community action, 3) Risk is global, resilience is local, 4) From managing risk we need to focus on managing uncertainty, and 5) From managing risk we need to focus to building resilience. In this paper, discussions and arguments are made for “Black Swan” and “anti-fragile” event, and five pillars are proposed for this 1) A further strengthened Disaster Risk Management system, particularly at the local level, 2) Resilient Infrastructure including social, economic and environmental, 3) Resilient Financial System with equitable access to savings, credit finance and insurance, 4) Social protection especially for those in the informal economy, and 5) need for Sustainable Natural Resource Management. There is a strong and significant policy environment in India which can support in considering these lessons from COVID-19 to strengthen the future risk management and risk reduction framework in the country.