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Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 under different reopening strategies.
Liu, Meng; Thomadsen, Raphael; Yao, Song.
  • Liu M; Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, 63130, USA.
  • Thomadsen R; Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, 63130, USA.
  • Yao S; Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, 63130, USA. songyao@wustl.edu.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 20367, 2020 11 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-940865
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ABSTRACT
We combine COVID-19 case data with mobility data to estimate a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the United States. In contrast to a standard SIR model, we find that the incidence of COVID-19 spread is concave in the number of infectious individuals, as would be expected if people have inter-related social networks. This concave shape has a significant impact on forecasted COVID-19 cases. In particular, our model forecasts that the number of COVID-19 cases would only have an exponential growth for a brief period at the beginning of the contagion event or right after a reopening, but would quickly settle into a prolonged period of time with stable, slightly declining levels of disease spread. This pattern is consistent with observed levels of COVID-19 cases in the US, but inconsistent with standard SIR modeling. We forecast rates of new cases for COVID-19 under different social distancing norms and find that if social distancing is eliminated there will be a massive increase in the cases of COVID-19.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Models, Statistical / Disease Susceptibility / Pandemics / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-020-77292-8

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Models, Statistical / Disease Susceptibility / Pandemics / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-020-77292-8