Monitoring for outbreak-associated excess mortality in an African city: Detection limits in Antananarivo, Madagascar.
Int J Infect Dis
; 103: 338-342, 2021 Feb.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-943190
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
Quantitative estimates of the impact of infectious disease outbreaks are required to develop measured policy responses. In many low- and middle-income countries, inadequate surveillance and incompleteness of death registration are important barriers.DESIGN:
Here, we characterize how large an impact on mortality would have to be for being detectable using the uniquely detailed mortality notification data from the city of Antananarivo, Madagascar, with application to a recent measles outbreak.RESULTS:
The weekly mortality rate of children during the 2018-2019 measles outbreak was 161% above the expected value at its peak, and the signal can be detected earlier in children than in the general population. This approach to detect anomalies from expected baseline mortality allows us to delineate the prevalence of COVID-19 at which excess mortality would be detectable with the existing death notification system in Antananarivo.CONCLUSIONS:
Given current age-specific estimates of the COVID-19 fatality ratio and the age structure of the population in Antananarivo, we estimate that as few as 11 deaths per week in the 60-70 years age group (corresponding to an infection rate of approximately 1%) would detectably exceed the baseline. Data from 2020 will undergo necessary processing and quality control in the coming months. Our results provide a baseline for interpreting this information.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Disease Outbreaks
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Middle aged
/
Infant, Newborn
Country/Region as subject:
Africa
Language:
English
Journal:
Int J Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.ijid.2020.11.182
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