Multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model for COVID-19-a revisit to Singapore's case.
Quant Biol
; 8(4): 325-335, 2020.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-947080
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
COVID-19 has been impacting on the whole world critically and constantly since late December 2019. Rapidly increasing infections has raised intense worldwide attention. How to model the evolution of COVID-19 effectively and efficiently is of great significance for prevention and control.METHODS:
We propose the multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model based on the original single-chain model in [Shao et al. 2020] to describe the evolution of COVID-19 in Singapore. Multi-chains can be considered as the superposition of several single chains with different characteristics. We identify the parameters of models by minimizing the penalty function.RESULTS:
The numerical simulation results exhibit the multi-chain model performs well on data fitting. Though unsteady the increments are, they could still fall within the range of _30% fluctuation from simulation results.CONCLUSION:
The multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model provides an effective way to early detect the appearance of imported infectors and super spreaders and forecast a second outbreak. It can also explain the data from those countries where the single-chain model shows deviation from the data.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Observational study
Language:
English
Journal:
Quant Biol
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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