Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 Index Case in Hubei Province.
Pekar, Jonathan; Worobey, Michael; Moshiri, Niema; Scheffler, Konrad; Wertheim, Joel O.
  • Pekar J; Bioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
  • Worobey M; Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
  • Moshiri N; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
  • Scheffler K; Department Computer Science & Engineering, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
  • Wertheim JO; Illumina, Inc., San Diego, CA 92122, USA.
bioRxiv ; 2020 Nov 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-955722
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Understanding when SARS-CoV-2 emerged is critical to evaluating our current approach to monitoring novel zoonotic pathogens and understanding the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. We employed a coalescent framework to combine retrospective molecular clock inference with forward epidemiological simulations to determine how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated prior to the time of the most recent common ancestor. Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that over two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates.

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Language: English Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 2020.11.20.392126

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Language: English Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 2020.11.20.392126