Effect of early application of social distancing interventions on COVID-19 mortality over the first pandemic wave: An analysis of longitudinal data from 37 countries.
J Infect
; 82(1): 133-142, 2021 Jan.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-956006
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
To estimate the effect of early application of social distancing interventions on Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave.METHODS:
Ecological longitudinal study using multivariable negative binomial regression for panel data. Daily numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths, and data on social distancing interventions, for the 37 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were analysed.RESULTS:
Covid-19 cumulative mortality over the first pandemic wave varied widely across countries (range, 4.16 to 855 deaths per million population). On average, one-day delay in application of mass gatherings ban was associated with an adjusted increase in Covid-19 cumulative mortality by 6.97% (95% CI, 3.45 to 10.5), whilst a one-day delay in school closures was associated with an increase of 4.37% (95% CI, 1.58 to 7.17) over the study period. We estimated that if each country had enacted both interventions one week earlier, Covid-19 cumulative mortality could have been reduced by an average of 44.1% (95% CI, 20.2 to 67.9).CONCLUSIONS:
Early application of mass gatherings ban and school closures in outbreak epicentres was associated with an important reduction in Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave. These findings may support policy decision making.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Policy Making
/
Crowding
/
Physical Distancing
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Humans
/
Middle aged
/
Young adult
Language:
English
Journal:
J Infect
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.jinf.2020.11.033
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