Timing of national lockdown and mortality in COVID-19: The Italian experience.
Int J Infect Dis
; 100: 193-195, 2020 Nov.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-959827
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate if the pandemic mitigation effects of lockdown in Italy have been influenced by the level of penetration of COVID-19 in Italian Regions at the onset of containment (March 9, 2020).METHODS:
We collected data published day by daily from the first COVID-19 case until May 3, 2020, the end of lockdown, by Italy's Protezione Civile Department. Linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate possible correlations between the number of confirmed cases/100.000 residents and the number of new cases/100.000/day before lockdown, with the number of deaths/100.000 residents at sixty days, in each Italian region.RESULTS:
We found a significant positive correlation between the number of confirmed cases before lockdown and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.57) as well as between the incidence rate of new cases per day and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.73). Regression coefficients indicated about two deaths up to sixty days for every new patient with confirmed COVID-19 before lockdown, and 37 deaths for every new infected subject per day until the lockdown decree of March 9, 2020.CONCLUSIONS:
Every new infected subject before lockdown counted on the death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Quarantine
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Int J Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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