Covid-19 infected case estimation in india using 5-pl model

ABSTRACT

On 11th February 2020, Corona-virus was declared as a disease, COVID-19, by the World Health Organization (WHO). In December 2019, China became the first country to report its first case of COVID-19. The novel Corona-virus started spreading at an uncontrollable pace across the world and was therefore declared as a Pandemic disease in March 2020 by the WHO. In this manuscript, the India's epidemic situation with total no. of days as 242, starting from 13th January till 10th of September 2020 is being predicted. The 5-PL model is used to predict the reported data. Nonlinear regression techniques in MATLAB to predict the parameters. In an attempt to do so, it has been observed that the prediction seems to be quite close to the actual on ground situation. This will certainly help the decision makers in implementing improved strategic decision making to counteract, and restrict the spread of the COVID -19.