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Supporting Australia’s housing system: Modelling pandemic policy responses
AHURI Final Report ; 346, 2020.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-967704
ABSTRACT
Key points • Predictions about the impact to Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020 suggest a range approximately 5 per cent to 25 per cent lower than in late 2019. There is a broad consensus that GDP growth in 2021 will deliver a total level of output approximately 4 per cent to 5 per cent lower than in late 2019. • There are 956,000 households living in Housing Affordability Stress (HAS) in Australia. Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA) reduces this number to 758,000. There is a heavy concentration in the private rental sector (69%) but this is reduced to 61 per cent after CRA is taken into account. • Nearly 50,000 households that face high housing cost burdens themselves also own a private investment property – this is cause for concern given that private renters have been disproportionately affected by the downturn. • It is estimated that the number of households living with HAS would have risen to 1,336,000 (from the 758,000 baseline) without the JobKeeper and JobSeeker interventions. • The JobKeeper and JobSeeker interventions reduced the incidence of housing affordability stress by a considerable amount 861,500 household compared to 1,336,000 without the intervention. • As JobKeeper moves through its later phases, HAS gradually rises by a further 124,000 compared to phase one, and 73 per cent of these households are private renters. • A combination of CRA and a 25 per cent rent relief scenario have the most powerful impacts on simulated numbers in HAS of all the interventions modelled. • The 2021 scenario modelling shows that CRA is not sufficient to fully mitigate the impacts of an economic downturn in any of the scenarios examined. • Finally, households living with HAS and owning an investment property themselves are predicted to more than double. All interventions modelled have a mild effect on these additional numbers. © 2020 Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute. All rights reserved.

Full text: Available Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: Scopus Language: English Journal: AHURI Final Report Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: Scopus Language: English Journal: AHURI Final Report Year: 2020 Document Type: Article