Modeling Social Distancing Strategies to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Israel: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.
Value Health
; 24(5): 607-614, 2021 05.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-969334
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
While highly effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 spread, national lockdowns come with an enormous economic price. Few countries have adopted an alternative "testing, tracing, and isolation" approach to selectively isolate people at high exposure risk, thereby minimizing the economic impact. To assist policy makers, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of these 2 strategies.METHODS:
A modified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered, and Deceased (SEIRD) model was employed to assess the situation in Israel, a small country with â¼9 million people. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of these strategies as well as the expected number of infected individuals and deaths were calculated.RESULTS:
A nationwide lockdown is expected to save, on average, 274 (median 124, interquartile range 71-221) lives compared to the "testing, tracing, and isolation" approach. However, the ICER will be, on average, $45 104 156 (median $49.6 million, interquartile range 22.7-220.1) to prevent 1 case of death.CONCLUSION:
A national lockdown has a moderate advantage in saving lives with tremendous costs and possible overwhelming economic effects. These findings should assist decision makers dealing with additional waves of this pandemic.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
Physical Distancing
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Qualitative research
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Value Health
Journal subject:
Pharmacology
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.jval.2020.09.013
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