Beyond Predicting the Number of Infections: Predicting Who is Likely to Be COVID Negative or Positive.
Risk Manag Healthc Policy
; 13: 2811-2818, 2020.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-970228
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
This study aims to identify individuals' likelihood of being COVID negative or positive, enabling more targeted infectious disease prevention and control when there is a shortage of COVID-19 testing kits.METHODS:
We conducted a primary survey of 521 adults on April 1-10, 2020 in Iran, where 3% reported being COVID-19 positive and 15% were unsure whether they were infected. This relatively high positive rate enabled us to conduct the analysis at the 5% significance level.RESULTS:
Adults who exercised more were more likely to be COVID-19 negative. Each additional hour of exercise per day predicted a 78% increase in the likelihood of being COVID-19 negative. Adults with chronic health issues were 48% more likely to be COVID-19 negative. Those working from home were the most likely to be COVID-19 negative, and those who had stopped working due to the pandemic were the most likely to be COVID-19 positive. Adults employed in larger organizations were less likely to be COVID-19 positive.CONCLUSION:
This study enables more targeted infectious disease prevention and control by identifying the risk factors of COVID-19 infections from a set of readily accessible information. We hope this research opens a new research avenue to predict the individual likelihood of COVID-19 infection by risk factors.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
Risk Manag Healthc Policy
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
RMHP.S273755
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