Relationships between Demographic, Geographic, and Environmental Statistics and the Spread of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Italy.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Since January 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has raged around the world, causing nearly a million deaths and hundreds of severe economic crises. In this scenario, Italy has been one of the most affected countries. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated significant correlations between COVID-19 cases and demographic, geographical, and environmental statistics of each Italian region from February 26 to August 12, 2020. We further investigated the link between the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and particulate matter (PM) 2.5 and 10 concentrations before the lockdown in Lombardy. METHODS: All demographic data were obtained from the AdminStat Italia website, and geographic data were from the Il Meteo website. The collection frequency was one week. Data on PM2.5 and PM10 average daily concentrations were collected from previously published articles. We used Pearson's coefficients to correlate the quantities that followed a normal distribution, and Spearman's coefficient to correlate quantities that did not follow a normal distribution. RESULTS: We found significant strong correlations between COVID-19 cases and population number in 60.0% of the regions. We also found a significant strong correlation between the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the various regions and their latitude, and with the historical averages (last 30 years) of their minimum temperatures. We identified a significant strong correlation between the number of COVID-19 cases until August 12 and the average daily concentrations of PM2.5 in Lombardy until February 29, 2020. No significant correlation with PM10 was found in the same long periods. However, we found that 40 µg/m^3 for PM2.5 and 50 µg/m^3 for PM10 are plausible thresholds beyond which particulate pollution clearly favors the spread of SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSION: Since SARS-CoV-2 is correlated with historical minimum temperatures and PM10 and 2.5, health authorities are urged to monitor pollution levels and to invest in precautions for the arrival of autumn. Furthermore, we suggest creating awareness campaigns for the recirculation of air in enclosed places and to avoid exposure to the cold.