Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Impact of the Inflow Population From Outbreak Areas on the COVID-19 Epidemic in Yunnan Province and the Recommended Control Measures: A Preliminary Study.
Sun, Zhong; He, Guozhong; Huang, Ninghao; Chen, Hongyu; Zhang, Shuwei; Zhao, Zizhao; Zhao, Yao; Yang, Guang; Yang, Songwang; Xiong, Haiyan; Karuppiah, Thilakavathy; Kumar, S Suresh; He, Jibo; Xiong, Chenglong.
  • Sun Z; Department of Biomedical Science, Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia.
  • He G; School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China.
  • Huang N; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Chen H; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Zhang S; School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China.
  • Zhao Z; School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China.
  • Zhao Y; School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China.
  • Yang G; School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China.
  • Yang S; School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China.
  • Xiong H; School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China.
  • Karuppiah T; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • Kumar SS; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
  • He J; Department of Biomedical Science, Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia.
  • Xiong C; Genetics and Regenerative Medicine Research Group, Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia.
Front Public Health ; 8: 609974, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-993482
ABSTRACT

Background:

COVID-19 developed into a global pandemic in 2020 and poses challenges regarding the prevention and control capabilities of countries. A large number of inbound travelers from other regions could lead to a renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in the local regions. Globally, as a result of the imbalance in the control of the epidemic, all countries are facing the risk of a renewed COVID-19 outbreak brought about by travelers from epidemic areas. Therefore, studies on a proper management of the inbound travelers are urgent.

Methods:

We collected a total of 4,733,414 inbound travelers and 174 COVID-19 diagnosed patients in Yunnan province from 21 January 2020 to 20 February 2020. Data on place of origin, travel history, age, and gender, as well as whether they had suspected clinical manifestations for inbound travelers in Yunnan were collected. The impact of inbound travelers on the local epidemic was analyzed with a collinear statistical analysis and the effect of the control measures on the epidemic was evaluated with a sophisticated modeling approach.

Results:

Of the 174 COVID-19 patients, 60.9% were not from Yunnan, and 76.4% had a history of travel in Hubei. The amount of new daily cases in Yunnan was significant correlated with the number of inbound travelers from Hubei and suspected cases among them. Using Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model analysis, we found that the prevention and control measures dropped the local R0 down to 1.07 in Yunnan province.

Conclusions:

Our preliminary analysis showed that the proper management of inbound travelers from outbreak areas has a significantly positive effect on the prevention and control of the virus. In the process of resettlement, some effective measures taken by Yunnan province may provide an important reference for preventing the renewed COVID-19 outbreak in other regions.
Subject(s)
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Travel / Disease Outbreaks / Disease Transmission, Infectious / Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged / Young adult Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Front Public Health Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Fpubh.2020.609974

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Travel / Disease Outbreaks / Disease Transmission, Infectious / Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged / Young adult Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Front Public Health Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Fpubh.2020.609974