The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: Epidemiology and impact of interventions.
PLoS Comput Biol
; 16(12): e1008467, 2020 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-999796
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
In January 2020, a COVID-19 outbreak was detected in Sichuan Province of China. Six weeks later, the outbreak was successfully contained. The aim of this work is to characterize the epidemiology of the Sichuan outbreak and estimate the impact of interventions in limiting SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We analyzed patient records for all laboratory-confirmed cases reported in the province for the period of January 21 to March 16, 2020. To estimate the basic and daily reproduction numbers, we used a Bayesian framework. In addition, we estimated the number of cases averted by the implemented control strategies. The outbreak resulted in 539 confirmed cases, lasted less than two months, and no further local transmission was detected after February 27. The median age of local cases was 8 years older than that of imported cases. We estimated R0 at 2.4 (95% CI 1.6-3.7). The epidemic was self-sustained for about 3 weeks before going below the epidemic threshold 3 days after the declaration of a public health emergency by Sichuan authorities. Our findings indicate that, were the control measures be adopted four weeks later, the epidemic could have lasted 49 days longer (95% CI 31-68 days), causing 9,216 more cases (95% CI 1,317-25,545).
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Disease Outbreaks
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
PLoS Comput Biol
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Medical Informatics
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Journal.pcbi.1008467
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