Report 20: Using Mobility to Estimate the Transmission Intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A Subnational Analysis with Future Scenarios

ABSTRACT

From the Introduction: Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Italy was the first European country to be hit by COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]. [...] In this report we analyse the incidence of death reported across the 20 Italian regions, and along with the observed relative changes in regional movement, assess how interventions have impacted the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2. We provide estimates of the number of deaths averted by the implementation of the control measures, the expected proportion of population infected (as of 1st May 2020), and explore the potential impact that the relaxation of the current interventions could have on disease transmission in the future. Understanding what impact the relaxation of the currently implemented NPIs ('exit strategies') will have on transmission is critical in guiding policy decisions to manage the transmission of COVID-19 in the so-called 'Phase 2'.COVID-19 (Disease);Epidemics