Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
; 53:e20200481-e20200481, 2020.
Article
in English
| LILACS (Americas) | ID: grc-742514
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic.METHODS:
The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data.RESULTS:
The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model.CONCLUSIONS:
Predictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution.
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Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
LILACS (Americas)
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Long Covid
Language:
English
Journal:
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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