How Social Distancing, Mobility, and Preventive Policies Affect COVID-19 Outcomes in Urban Areas: Big Data-driven Evidence from the DMV Megaregion

ABSTRACT

Many factors play a role in outcomes of emerging highly contagious diseases such as COVID-19. Identification and a better understanding of these factors are critical for the planning and implementation of effective response strategies during such public health crises. This study uses longitudinal data to examine the impact of factors related to social distancing, human mobility, enforcement strategies, hospital capacity, and testing capacity in COVID-19 infection and mortality rates. The results provide evidence that lower COVID-19 infection and mortality rates are linked with increased levels of social distancing and reduced levels of travel—particularly by public transit modes. Other preventive strategies also prove to be influential in COVID-19 outcomes. Most notably, lower COVID-19 infection and mortality rates are linked with stricter enforcement policies and more severe penalties for violating stay-at-home orders. Also, policies that allow gradual relaxation of social distancing measures and travel restrictions as well as those requiring usage of a face mask are related to lower COVID-19 infection and mortality rates. Additionally, increased access to ventilators and Intensive Care Unit beds, which represent hospital capacity, are linked with lower COVID-19 mortality rates. On the other hand, gaps in testing capacity are related to higher COVID-19 infection rates. The results also show that certain minority groups such as African Americans and Hispanics are disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.