Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality rate
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
; No. 27696, 2020.
Article
in English
| NBER | ID: grc-748252
ABSTRACT
India’s case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, trending from 3% or more, to a current level of around 2.2%. The world average rate is far higher, at around 4%. Several observers have noted that this difference is at least partly due to India’s younger age distribution. In this paper, we use age-specific fatality rates from 14 comparison countries, coupled with India’s distribution of covid-19 cases to “predict" what India’s CFR would be with those age-specific rates. In most cases, those predictions are lower than India’s actual performance, suggesting that India’s CFR is, if anything, too high rather than too low. We supplement the prediction exercises with the application of a decomposition technique, and we additionally account for time lags between case incidence and death, for a more relevant cross-country perspective in the growth phase of the pandemic.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
NBER
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Language:
English
Journal:
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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