Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
; No. 26934, 2020.
Article
in English
| NBER | ID: grc-748457
ABSTRACT
What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? How do they differ from other economic disasters? We study major pandemics using the rates of return on assets stretching back to the 14th century. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for about decades, with real rates of return substantially depressed, in stark contrast to what happens after wars. Our findings are consistent with the neoclassical growth model capital is destroyed in wars, but not in pandemics;pandemics instead may induce relative labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
NBER
Language:
English
Journal:
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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