An evolutionary portrait of the progenitor SARS-CoV-2 and its dominant offshoots in COVID-19 pandemic (preprint)

ABSTRACT

We report the likely most recent common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 - the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. This progenitor SARS-CoV-2 genome was recovered through a novel application and advancement of computational methods initially developed to reconstruct the mutational history of tumor cells in a patient. The progenitor differs from the earliest coronaviruses sampled in China by three variants, implying that none of the earliest patients represent the index case or gave rise to all the human infections. However, multiple coronavirus infections in China and the USA harbored the progenitor genetic fingerprint in January 2020 and later, suggesting that the progenitor was spreading worldwide as soon as weeks after the first reported cases of COVID-19. Mutations of the progenitor and its offshoots have produced many dominant coronavirus strains, which have spread episodically over time. Fingerprinting based on common mutations reveals that the same coronavirus lineage has dominated North America for most of the pandemic. There have been multiple replacements of predominant coronavirus strains in Europe and Asia and the continued presence of multiple high-frequency strains in Asia and North America. We provide a continually updating dashboard of global evolution and spatiotemporal trends of SARS-CoV-2 spread (http//sars2evo.datamonkey.org/).