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Timing the SARS-CoV-2 Index Case in Hubei Province (preprint)
biorxiv; 2020.
Preprint
in English
| bioRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2020.11.20.392126
ABSTRACT
Understanding when SARS-CoV-2 emerged is critical to evaluating our current approach to monitoring novel zoonotic pathogens and understanding the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. We employed a coalescent framework to combine retrospective molecular clock inference with forward epidemiological simulations to determine how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated prior to the time of the most recent common ancestor. Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that over two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
bioRxiv
Main subject:
COVID-19
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Preprint
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