Correlation of Computerized Tomography (CT) Severity Score for COVID-19 pneumonia with Clinical Outcomes (preprint)

ABSTRACT

IntroductionVarious CT severity scores have already been described in literature since the start of this pandemic. One pertinent issue with all of the previously described severity scores is their relative challenging calculation and variance in inter-observer agreement. The severity score proposed in our study is relatively simpler, easier to calculate and apart from a trained radiologist, can easily be calculated even by physicians with good inter-observer agreement. Therefore, a rapid CT severity score calculation can give a clue to physician about possible clinical outcome without being dependent on radiologist who may not be readily available especially in third world countries. ObjectiveThe objective of this study is to develop a simple CT severity score (CT-SS) with good inter-observer agreement and access its correlation with clinical outcome. MethodsThis retrospective study was conducted by the Department of Radiology and Internal Medicine, at the Aga Khan University Hospital Karachi, from April 2020 to August 2020. Non-probability consecutive sampling was used to include all patients who were positive for COVID-19 on PCR, and underwent CT chest examination at AKUH. Severity of disease was calculated in each lobe on the basis of following proposed CT severity scoring system (CT-SS). For each lobe the percentage of involvement by disease was scored - 0% involvement was scored 0, <50% involvement was scored 1 and >50% involvement was scored 2. Maximum score for one lobe was 2 and hence total maximum overall score for all lobes was 10. Continuous data was represented using mean and standard deviation, and compared using independent sample t-tests. Categorical data was represented using frequencies and percentages, and compared using Chi-squared tests. Inter-observer reliability between radiologist and COVID intensivist for the 10 point CT-SS rated on 0-10 was assessed using the Kappa statistic. A p-value < 0.05 was considered significant for all analyses. ResultsA total of 73 patients were included, the majority male (58.9%) with mean age 55.8 {+/-} 13.93 years. The CT-SS rated on 0-10 showed substantial inter-observer reliability between radiologist and intensivist with a Kappa statistic of 0.78. Patients with CT-SS 8-10 had a significantly higher ICU admission & intubation rate (53.8% vs. 23.5%) and mortality rate (35.9% vs. 11.8%; p = 0.017), as compared to those with CT-SS 0-7. ConclusionWe conclude that the described CT severity score (CT-SS) is a quick, effective and easily reproducible tool for prediction of adverse clinical outcome in patients with COVID 19 pneumonia. The tool shows good inter-observer agreement when calculated by radiologist and physician independently.