Convergent evolution in SARS-CoV-2 Spike creates a variant soup that causes new COVID-19 waves. (preprint)

ABSTRACT

The first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic were mainly characterized by convergent evolution of mutations of SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein at residues K417, L452, E484, N501 and P681 across different variants of concern (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta). Since Spring 2022 and the third year of the pandemic, with the advent of Omicron and its sublineages, convergent evolution has led to the observation of different lineages acquiring an additional group of mutations at different amino acid residues, namely R346, K444, N450, N460, F486, F490, Q493, and S494. Mutations at these residues have become increasingly prevalent during Summer and Autumn 2022, with combinations showing increased fitness. The most likely reason for this convergence is the selective pressure exerted by previous infection- or vaccine-elicited immunity. Such accelerated evolution has caused failure of all anti-Spike monoclonal antibodies, including bebtelovimab and cilgavimab. While we are learning how fast coronaviruses can mutate and recombine, we should reconsider opportunities for economically sustainable escape-proof combination therapies, and reevaluate the potential for polyclonal therapies (such as COVID19 convalescent plasma) in immunocompromised patients.